Electoral Analysis
Code: 106742 ECTS Credits: 6| Degree | Type | Year | Semester |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2500259 Political Science and Public Management | OB | 3 | 1 |
Contact
- Name:
- Enrique Hernandez Perez
- Email:
- enrique.hernandez@uab.cat
Use of Languages
- Principal working language:
- spanish (spa)
- Some groups entirely in English:
- No
- Some groups entirely in Catalan:
- No
- Some groups entirely in Spanish:
- No
Prerequisites
Students should have completed the compulsory subjects of Methodology of Political Analysis and Political Behavior.
Objectives and Contextualisation
The aim of this course is to provide students with theoretical and practical tools to analyze the electoral processes and the various elements and actors involved: electoral systems, campaigns, candidates and voters.
This is a natural continuation of the course 'Political behavior' of the third year, which presents the current state of research in electoral behavior combined with a more applied aspect of analysis and electoral strategy.
Competences
- Act with ethical responsibility and respect for fundamental rights and duties, diversity and democratic values.
- Analysing the behaviour of the political actors, both individually and collectively (parties, interest groups, social movements, etc.).
- Analysing the electoral processes, including campaigns, parties' electoral strategies, political scenarios and analysis and interpretation of electoral results.
- Arguing from different theoretical perspectives.
- Assess the social, economic and environmental impact when acting in this field of knowledge.
- Demonstrating good writing skills in different contexts.
- Demonstrating the comprehension of citizen behaviour and democratic values, particularly in internal or international concrete cases.
- Designing data collection techniques, coordinating the information processing and meticulously applying hypothesis verification methods.
- Develop critical thought and reasoning and be able to communicate them effectively, both in your own language and second or third languages.
- Develop strategies for autonomous learning.
- Explaining political, individual and collective attitudes and behaviours, as well as the education process and expression of political preferences.
- Identifying and distinguishing the functioning of the electoral processes.
- Identifying main actors of the political system, inspecting their interactions and assessing their behaviour in their environment and in the political system from a theoretical and practical perspective.
- Identifying sources of data and conducting bibliographic and documentary searches.
- Interpreting and applying English texts in an academic way.
- Make changes to the methods and processes of the area of knowledge to provide innovative responses to the needs and wishes of society.
- Managing the available time in order to accomplish the established objectives and fulfil the intended task.
- Managing the different theoretical contributions about actors and actor's networks, as well as the characteristics of collective action.
- Realising effective oral presentations that are suited to the audience.
- Showing a good capacity for transmitting information, distinguishing key messages for their different recipients.
- Synthesizing and critically analysing information.
- Take sex- or gender-based inequalities into consideration when operating within one's own area of knowledge.
- Using the main information and documentation techniques (ICT) as an essential tool for the analysis.
- Working autonomously.
- Working by using quantitative and qualitative analysis techniques in order to apply them to research processes.
- Working in teams and networking, particularly in interdisciplinary conditions.
Learning Outcomes
- Act with ethical responsibility and respect for fundamental rights and duties, diversity and democratic values.
- Analysing the behaviour of the political actors, both individually and collectively (parties, interest groups, social movements, etc.).
- Analysing the electoral processes, including campaigns, parties' electoral strategies, political scenarios and analysis and interpretation of electoral results.
- Arguing from different theoretical perspectives.
- Assess the social, economic and environmental impact when acting in this field of knowledge.
- Demonstrating good writing skills in different contexts.
- Designing data collection techniques, coordinating the information processing and meticulously applying hypothesis verification methods.
- Develop critical thought and reasoning and be able to communicate them effectively, both in your own language and second or third languages.
- Develop strategies for autonomous learning.
- Explaining political, individual and collective attitudes and behaviours, as well as the education process and expression of political preferences.
- Identifying and distinguishing the functioning of the electoral processes.
- Identifying main actors of the political system, inspecting their interactions and assessing their behaviour in their environment and in the political system from a theoretical and practical perspective.
- Identifying sources of data and conducting bibliographic and documentary searches.
- Interpreting and applying English texts in an academic way.
- Make changes to the methods and processes of the area of knowledge to provide innovative responses to the needs and wishes of society.
- Managing the available time in order to accomplish the established objectives and fulfil the intended task.
- Managing the different theoretical contributions about actors and actor's networks, as well as the characteristics of collective action.
- Realising effective oral presentations that are suited to the audience.
- Showing a good capacity for transmitting information, distinguishing key messages for their different recipients.
- Synthesizing and critically analysing information.
- Take sex- or gender-based inequalities into consideration when operating within one's own area of knowledge.
- Using the main information and documentation techniques (ICT) as an essential tool for the analysis.
- Working autonomously.
- Working by using quantitative and qualitative analysis techniques in order to apply them to research processes.
- Working in teams and networking, particularly in interdisciplinary conditions.
Content
1. Introduction and review of basic models of electoral behavior
1.1. Introduction
1.2. The sociological model
1.3. The psycho-social model
1.4. The rational model
2. Public opinion and electoral behavior: prior considerations
2.1. The super-citizen and elitist theories of democracy
2.2. Cognitive mobilization and heuristics
2.3. The formation and change of partisan identification
2.4. Do we vote correctly?
3. Surveys and electoral prediction
3.1. Individual vs. agreggated added
3.2. Why do polls fails?
3.2.1. Sampling problems
3.2.2. Survey non-response
3.2.3. Social desirability: preference and vote recall falsification
3.2.4. Undecided voters and late deciders
3.2.5. Statistical precision
3.3. Estimation problem
3.4. Do polls influence voters?
3.5. New models of electoral forecasting
4. How do we participate and who participates? Abstention and other forms of participation
4.1. Different forms of political participation
4.2. Explanatory factors of political participation: The Civic Voluntarism model
4.3. Inequalities in participationand political inequality
4.4. Voting and other forms of participation: supplement or alternative?
4.5. Is it rational to vote? "Duty to vote" and compulsory voting
5. "Dealignment" or "realignment"?
5.1. Sociological voting model, cleavages and alignment
5.2. "Dealignment"
5.2.1. Definition
5.2.2. Evidence
5.3. "Realignment"
5.3.1. Definition
5.3.2. Evidence
6. Extreme right voting and class voting in post-industrial societies
6.1. Is class voting alive? Is it relevant?
6.2. New risks and new classes in post-industrial societies
6.3. New working classes, socio-culturalprofessionals and voting
6.4. Economy vs. Culture
6.5. The concept of "welfare chauvinism"
7. "Performance voting": Economy and corruption
7.1. Review: Economic voting
7.1.1. Basic model
7.1.2 Moderators
7.2. Corruption: definition and consequences
7.3. Evidence of limited electoral punishment
7.4. Explanations of limited electoral punishment
7.4.1 Implicit exchange
7.4.2 Partisanship
7.4.3 Information
7.4.4. Short term
8. Electoral behavior in multilevel systems
8.1. The second order election model
8.1.1. Regional elections
8.2. Differential abstention
8.3. Dual voting
9. Eurocepticism and European Parliament Elections
9.1. Attitudes towards the European Union and the vote in EPE
9.1.1. The model of second-order elections in EPE
9.2. Eurosceptic parties
9.3. Interaction between supply and demand
10. Referendums
10.1. Democracy and referendums
10.2. Electoral behavior in referendums
10.2.1. Who votes in referendums?
10.2.2. How do voters decide?
10.2.3. The influence of campaigns
10.3. The representativeness of referendums
10.4. Referendums and minorities
11. Gender and politics
11.1. Introduction
11.2. Political participation and gender
11.2.1. Why do women participate less?
11.2.2. Modes of participation and gender
11.2.3. Consequences of the "gender-gap"
11.3. Vote and gender
11.3.1. Ideology and gender
11.3.2. Do women vote for women?
11.4. Female representation
11.4.1. Women and electoral systems
11.4.2. Gender quotas
12. Personalization of politics
12.1. The growing relevance of political leaders
12.2 Media and personalization of politics
12.2.1. The relevance of television
12.2.2. Internet and social networks
12.3 Consequences of personalization: participation and declining role of parties
Methodology
Theory sessions will generally take place on wednesdays.
Lab sessions will generally take place on mondays. They will be divided in three different types of activities:
- In group writing of a research paper. This includes 4 tutorials with the professor in order to assess the evolution of the research paper.
- Tools and excercises for survey data analysis. 5 sessions in the computer lab.
- Discussion of readings. 3 sessions in which students are required to read a paper in order to critically discuss the paper in class.
Note: Within the schedule set by the centre or degree programme, 15 minutes of one class will be reserved for students to evaluate their lecturers and their courses or modules through questionnaires.
Annotation: Within the schedule set by the centre or degree programme, 15 minutes of one class will be reserved for students to evaluate their lecturers and their courses or modules through questionnaires.
Activities
| Title | Hours | ECTS | Learning Outcomes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Type: Directed | |||
| Preparation and writing of a research paper | 0 | 0 | 1, 2, 3, 9, 7, 17, 10, 18, 16, 13, 11, 14, 15, 20, 23, 25 |
| Type: Supervised | |||
| In-class exercises | 0 | 0 | 1, 21, 5, 2, 3, 4, 9, 8, 17, 10, 12, 13, 11, 14, 15, 20, 25 |
| Supervision of the research paper with the professor (4 sessions of 20 minutes each) | 0 | 0 | 21, 2, 3, 4, 17, 12, 13, 11, 14, 20, 24, 25, 22 |
Assessment
Final exam(40%) * Final essay (30%) * Divided between:
- Essay (25%)
- Attendance and evaluation of tutorials (5%)
The esay must be handed in on the day of the exam. If you do not hand in the assignment you will not be allowed to take the exam.
In class-exercises (30%)
Divided between:
- 4 data analaysis exercises (15%)
- Reading and discussion of 3 readings and submission of 3 discussion handouts (15%)
* To pass the course a minimum grade of 5/10 is required in both the exam and the final essay. Make-up assesment:
Students who do not pass the exam or the final assignment (grade <5) will be able to take a make-up exam and / or resubmit the final assingment on the day of the make-up exam.
If the final assignment has not been previously submitted and it is submited for the first time on the day of the the make-up exam a -25% penalty will be applied to the final assignment grade.
Final exam(40%) * Final essay (30%) * Divided between:
- Essay (25%)
- Attendance and evaluation of tutorials (5%)
The esay must be handed in on the day of the exam. If you do not hand in the assignment you will not be allowed to take the exam.
In class-exercises (30%)
Divided between:
- 4 data analaysis exercises (15%)
- Reading and discussion of 3 readings and submission of 3 discussion handouts (15%)
* To pass the course a minimum grade of 5/10 is required in both the exam and the final essay. Make-up assesment:
Students who do not pass the exam or the final assignment (grade <5) will be able to take a make-up exam and / or resubmit the final assingment on the day of the make-up exam.
If the final assignment has not been previously submitted and it is submited for the first time on the day of the the make-up exam a -25% penalty will be applied to the final assignment grade.
Assessment Activities
| Title | Weighting | Hours | ECTS | Learning Outcomes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final essay | 30 | 50 | 2 | 1, 21, 5, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 8, 7, 17, 10, 18, 16, 12, 13, 11, 14, 15, 19, 20, 24, 23, 25, 22 |
| Final exam | 40 | 50 | 2 | 1, 21, 5, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 8, 7, 17, 10, 18, 16, 12, 13, 11, 14, 15, 19, 20, 24, 23, 25, 22 |
| In-class exercises | 30 | 50 | 2 | 1, 21, 5, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 8, 7, 17, 10, 18, 16, 12, 13, 11, 14, 15, 19, 20, 24, 23, 25, 22 |
Bibliography
Essential
Arzheimer, K., Evans, J., Lewis-Beck, M.S., 2017. The SAGE handbook of electoral behaviour. SAGE. Anduiza, E y Bosch, A. 2004 Comportamiento politico y electoral. Barcelona: Ariel
Fraile, M., & Hernández, E. (2020). Determinants of voting behaviour. In D. Muro & I. Lago (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Spanish Politics. Oxford University Press.
Additional
Riba, Clara. 2000. "Voto Dual Y Abstención Diferencial. Un Estudio Sobre El Comportamiento Electoral En Cataluña." Revista Española de Investigaciones Sociológicas 91: 59-88.
Rose-Ackerman, Susan. 2008. "Corrupció política i reforma en sistemes democràtics: perspectives teòriques". A Corruption and Clientelism, Junichi Kawata (Ed.), pp 61-81 Kyoto: Minerva Ltd.
Riera, Pedro. 2009. L'evolució Del Vot Dual a Catalunya. Institut de Ciències Polítiques i Socials, Working paper 278.
Verge, Tània. 2012. "Les quotes: són necessàries". Revista Interdisciplinar de Estudios de Género 2: 21-31. The required readings will be distributed at the beggining of the course
Software
For the computer data analysis lab-sessions we will use the open-soruce software "Jamovi"